After becoming active over the rice-growing Indo-Gangetic plains, the southwest monsoon might witness weak phase for the next 3-4 days over the already rain-deficient region. So far, the main deficit states are Uttar Pradesh (-42 per cent), Bihar (-36 per cent), Jharkhand (-48 per cent), and West Bengal (-24 per cent). According to private weather forecasting agency Skymet, rains in west UP, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, and Jharkhand are expected to be weak in the next 3-4 days before again picking pace.
The Indian Meteorology Department also predicted some respite from the severe heat wave prevailing in several parts of the country.
Usually, the annual monsoon forecast is released around mid-April.
Skymet said the monsoon this year could be 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent.
Data from department of agriculture showed that kharif crops had been sown in around 31.56 million hectares till Friday, which was 104.25 per cent more than the same period last year. Acreage of almost all crops was higher than last year.
Several deaths were reported across the country due to rain-related incidents like lightning strikes and drowning.
Southwest monsoon, the key to the agriculture driven trillion-dollar Indian economy, on Tuesday brought showers to Kerala bringing much-needed relief to farmers.
Monsoon normally starts withdrawing beginning September 1 from west Rajasthan.
However, it's too soon to see any trend; July rain is key.
India's GDP is likely to grow at 6.5 to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year amid global challenges which may impact exports, said Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. The growth projected for 2024-25 is lower than the economic growth rate of 8.2 per cent estimated for the previous financial year. The Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2025 at 7.2 per cent.
It is expected to advance into coastal and south-interior Karnataka during the next two days.
Normally, the monsoon hits Kerala on June one after which it spans the entire country up to Rajasthan.
Skymet is the first major Indian weather forecasting agency to have issued a monsoon forecast for 2016.
The rains have so far been four per cent below normal.
Senior officials of the India Meteorological Department said they were now more confident that El Nino would indeed appear during the second half of the southwest season, compared to April when the last official forecast was made.
Monsoon will hit the Kerala coast on June 1, setting the stage for the four-month annual rainfall season crucial for India's agriculture-based economy. "The date of onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on June 1 with a model error of four days," the India Meteorological Department announced on Tuesday.
Pulses are most vulnerable to pests and diseases if the monsoon remains patchy for the rest of the season.
La Nina, a weather pattern arising in the Pacific Ocean that causes heavy rain in South Asia, is assuming a neutral condition, senior India Meteorological Department officials have said. This suggests the country will have a near-normal southwest monsoon.
The crucial south-west monsoon is expected to bring its first showers to Kerala on June 3, a slight delay that could be attributed to the cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal. "Southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on June 3," said Chief Monsoon Forecaster, India Meteorological Department D Sivananda Pai.
After missing its deadline, the monsoon is likely to hit the national capital and parts of north India by the end of the week, a private forecasting agency said on Monday.
Mumbai will have to wait for a few more days for monsoon showers.
The southwest monsoon, which has gathered significant pace in the last few days, is expected to cover the entire country in two-three days, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday.
According to a rediff.com correspondent, there was a slight drizzle in some parts of Kerala, including in Cochin.
The forecast has an error margin of four days, which is considered normal
The southwest monsoon which reached the country on May 30 well within its normal onset date
With El Nino emerging, forecasts rainfall at 95% of long-period average.
About 60 per cent of the total cultivable area of 140 million hectare is rain fed, while the rest is irrigated. Southwest monsoon, which had brought cheer to the farming community due to its early onset on May 23, had stopped in its tracks over Konkan region of Maharashtra on June 7.
After making steady progress over the last fortnight, the southwest monsoon is expected to stall over the next few days because of unfavourable conditions. The slowdown is only temporary, yet it could heighten the concerns over the smooth progress of the rain-bringing phenomenon upcountry.
Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices cairman Ashok Gulati tells Business Standard that IMD's prediction should be taken with a pinch of salt, as data shows there is usually a deviation of eight-10 per cent from the standard margin of error in many met predictions.
Monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala on May 29, the India Meteorological Department predicted on Wednesday. ''This time, the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on May 29, with a model error of four days,'' the IMD said in a statement. With strengthening and deepening of monsoon winds and widespread rainfall activity, southwest monsoon advanced into the southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and north Andaman Sea on May 12, almost 8 days in advance.
The load-shedding has been in force for the last several months as the water level in reservoirs depleted drastically due to deficient rainfall last year.
The PMO also directed a careful watch on the intensity and spread of rainfall over the next week or so, especially in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan.
A total of 435 people died in the country due to extreme weather events during the last three months of the southwest monsoon, according to the data compiled by the India meteorological department.
This could have huge implications for agriculture, food prices, supply and overall economic growth of the country
Rain gods smiled on Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and some other places in the northern belt, which had witnessed only patchy rainfall since the advent of the monsoon late June.
Monsoon is expected to cover central and eastern India after Tuesday.
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